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Barry Thompson
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Biden, sleepy Joe.

Could be worse than Trump    ?   

DougBaker
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He will be boring, which for politics is exactly what is needed.

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Golf Juliet Tango
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1) not possible. 2) why be so negative before he has even been inaugurated? 3) his record of service to his country is admirable. 4) he is consciously being consensual, isn't this positive in itself? 5) despite a few policy wobbles, his integrity is apparent.

Stephen

Democratic dissent is not disloyalty, it is a positive civic duty

mandalman
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How could he be worse than the most childish, larcenous, incompetent and self serving clown currently sulking in the White House?

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DougBaker
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Well the TV ratings will almost certainly go down for the regular White house briefings. Wink

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Blokko
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I would love nothing more than for Delbert's original tongue-in-cheek Trump thread to fade into obscurity, along with the subject matter.  I fear, however, that the Biden years will be blighted by Trump.  It will either be because of impeachment and legal cases that could *possibly* give rise to the sight of an ex-president being charged for his actions during or prior to being in office or maybe Trump will overcome all of his legal strife, in which case he will be a massive thorn in the side of the Biden administration - constantly stirring the pot, looking for any opportunity to exploit the actions of his son or to find some reason to launch impeachment charges.

My guess is that Biden has two years in which he will try to mend fences.  I think he will do well on COVID (not difficult in light of the Horlicks that his predecessor made of things).  I also think he will do well on certain bipartisan matters - infrastructure, and Dreamers spring to mind.  He will continue to be tough on China and will be tougher than Trump on Russia, though a lot of this work will be done through traditional diplomatic back-channels rather than via Twitter.  He will offer an olive branch to Iran, but may be rebuffed.  North Korea is a bit of a wildcard - who knows how that will pan out?  I think he will largely leave Israel and the Middle East alone, if at all possible.  He will be strong on climate change, for which he will get a lot of pushback from the right.

His big challenge will be from within his own party.  "The Squad" (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib) are going to be pushing a leftist agenda that will include defunding of the police, Green New Deal, Medicare for All, minimum wage and reforms to the way in which bail works as well as addressing the systemic and social reasons behind the frighteningly high incarceration rate in the US and the over-representation of non-white ethnic groups in the prison population (old statistics, but it gives you an idea.  Looking at the summary of life events, it quotes a 1 in 100 chance of being murdered for a male.  This seems like a ridiculously high figure and I presumed it was a typo.  This article seems to back it up - but I wonder if these studies are flawed?  More info here - it appears we are on a downward trend in the US (most likely covered in the Pinker Better Angels book, which I must get round to reading at some time)).

Already there is talk of a migrant caravan heading towards the US border from Guatemala.  Obama / Biden had a tougher position on immigration than you might expect of Dems.  I believe that more people were expelled from the US during the Obama years than under any prior administration.  I think Biden will be fairly tough on new immigration, but will counter this by making a big deal of removing the Trump bans on entry from the list of mainly Muslim countries and he will also have a big push to reunite the children who were separated from their families as a result of actions taken regarding immigration during the Trump years.

Another big unknown is what will end up happening to the global and US economies.  All of this stimulus money is going to have to be paid back some time and I think this will inevitably lead to (unpopular) tax hikes in the future.  Short-term there will probably be a boom as all of the pent-up demand for holidays and socializing is released upon the success of the vaccine rollout, but I'm not sure how long this will sustain the economy for.  Being at the helm during a financial crisis hurts voter approval ratings and limits the agendas that a president can push.

My hope is that Biden doesn't get too attached to power and instead moves to an orderly transition to his VP about half way into his term.

Steve.
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Frogman
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Blokko, I think you are on the money with a pretty coherent analysis. It is certainly going to nake interesting viewing. I cannot help but think he has to make progress during the initial honeymoon period, if he gets one. No matter what peoples opinion of Trump he was voted in by a significant proportion of the US population and how they react will be key. The inauguration will be indicative I suspect. You are right about the squad and their intent. I suspect they are poised to pounce and Kamala will be placed front and centre fairly soon. I think your international assessment is about right too although misses out Venezuela the socialist bogeyman that is in part responsible for republican Latino votes. How they deal with that thorny issue will be interesting as it links to China, Russia and Iran as a proxy cold/warm war with significant impact on the increasingly important Latino vote. Granting concessions to Maduro will be a bad move in my book but a smarter more engaging strategy does need to be developed, that much is certain. Democratic International relations have always been interesting to watch when they are forced to deal with reality. Obama won a Nobel peace prize but authorised 26,000 bombs to be dropped on Syria and Trump made more progress with North Korea than anyone expected. I am not taking sides here it is an observation. Whatever happens I hope Biden is able to unite the people behind democratic values again and a better US as it is a bit of a mess that he is inheriting.

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Derek Batty
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I'll give him six months for press to find out some of his hidden nasties  then you'll all want him out ,,, and so who is next in line for president ,,,I recon he lives just up the road in Disney land ,,,,take your pick 

Derek

Blokko
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Thanks, Frogman Thumb Up

Yes, what to do with Venezuela and also Cuba whilst we are at it?  The Dems position on the latter hurt them in their vote count in Florida but as Biden was behind the normalization of relations with Cuba a few years back, I presume he will pick up where he left off.  I'm not really up to speed on events in South America.  I'm sure that Biden will look to keep out of military interventions where he can - the US can't afford the spend and there are a lot of voters in the US for whom the Rand Paul position around America not being the policeman of the world strikes a chord.  As you point out, Russia and China are influencing events in countries in South America, parts of Africa and the Middle East, so Biden may yet find himself having to go to places he would rather not be.  Though the Dems complained about troop numbers being reduced in Iraq and Afghanistan (and Somalia??), I'm not sure he is going to be in any rush to bolster numbers.

Derek - Biden is going to get pounded about what he knew of the business interests of his son, Hunter.  It remains to be seen if the quality of his Teflon is anywhere near as good as that of his predecessor, who seemed impervious to any sh1t that was thrown at him (allegations / actions that would have surely sunk many a politician in years gone by).  Kamala Harris stands a good chance of being president within the next 4 years.  My guess is that Trump will not be there to challenge her in '24.  It remains to be seen if it will be someone in Trumps image (Cruz, Hawley), someone from the old guard, or maybe someone who has been championed by the likes of the Lincoln Project?

Steve.
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Golf Juliet Tango
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Thanks Steve & Austin,

I agree with a lot of what you have posted.

  • Trump, for all his posturing, was outwitted/ignored by North Korea.  I can not see way forward except through China and I'm not even sure the PRC have so very much influence.
  • Iran, I see a stand-off, lots of talks and little action.
  • There will be compromises with the leftish wing.  I can't see a "defunding" of the police but can see compromises elsewhere.  There may be attempts to reform the police forces but this will make glacial progress.
  • While there will be no trumpeting about the wall & immigration, I think the only policy which will change is the separation of families.  The way children were separated from their parents was utterly barbaric.

 It would surprise me if there is a handover partway through Biden's term but I have confidence he will be a one term President.  Unless the right wing nutters shoot.  (Quite why anyone thought Trump was vulnerable when it is the right wing who have the guns, is bizarre.)

But that is the view from over here; over there you get a more immediate feeling for the undercurrents.

Stephen

Democratic dissent is not disloyalty, it is a positive civic duty

Derek Batty
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Looks like to be president of America ,,,you need to be an old fart ,,with plenty of cash ,,and full of bullshit 

derek