House prices and Interest rates

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Ivaan
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House prices and Interest rates

$64K question. What's going to happen to them in the next couple of years?

Opinions?

Tazio
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Interest rates flat, house prices falling, purely on basis of growth in the level of unemployment, and mortgage providers demanding a substantially increased level of deposit, or level of equity, so market will stall - just IMHO... 

tangomikeromeo
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I'll bid flat for both. Too much is owed for rates to go up and prices to go down. 

sforshaw
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I agree with Tazio, owing masses of money has never stopped values falling.

Deep recession usually means low interest rates to try to bolster the economy, they may even go negative.

High unemployment and insecure employment usually changes supply and demand, less buyers means a buyers market means falling prices.

Sadly as always it'll be cash-rich buyers that make a killing and we'll likely see an increase in the rental sector and an ever increasing disparity of wealth.

All my opinion though which could be worth diddly squat!

Stu.

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Golf Juliet Tango
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My opinion is similar. I'm pessimistic about the economy & employment, so I'd expect interest rates to be low and for there to be a quiet market in residential property.

Stephen

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StevehS3
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I think property will still change hands due to the very sad reality of the 3 Ds - death, divorce and debt but I agree there are more reasons for downward pricing pressure than upward. I suppose that may be good for some and bad for others.

Ivaan
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I tend to agree that interest rates will be very low for the next few years. With so many unemployed, wage rises will follow suit. Few people will want to take on a bigger mortgage. House prices will stall, and fall back in high unemployment areas.

My son is looking for a flat / apartment. First time buyer and keen to get on the ladder, but it may be best for him to hang on for a few months to see which way the market is going. Hopefully, his job is secure ( education), but who knows.

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wild bill
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i don't think house prices will fair equally (well they never do) so rate of fall will depend on where you live. I suspect quite a number of those with enough income/wealth who currently dwell in areas of close human proximity (Cities and big towns) will see their eyes gazing to areas which have suffered less (the wilds) as they realise that urban dwelling is not favoured in a pandemic (of which i suspect there will be more of in the coming years)

So rate of fall will be less in the countryside than say London. Maybe there'll be a panic exodus for those who can as they work out that the reason they so often give for city life (bars clubs theatres etc) is going to be less favoured in the future through peoples fear (rational or irrational) of proximity to others

As usual the poorer in society will be the most disadvantaged and the wealth disparity will grow bigger.

Mass unemployment on a scale unseen since the great depression maybe even greater much more so for the young i fear and those more fortunate are going to have to dig in and help out in whatever way they can.

Interest rates flat or poss negative.

All IMO and probably wrong, everything will be fiiine i'm sure

 

TomB
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To expand the discussion, how are 'we' going to pay back the massive state interventions and ballooning level of borrowing?  More austerity?  Higher taxes across the board must be inevitable?   

sforshaw
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That may depend upon just how big the very big debt is! There'll be interest on the government borrowing and that has to be covered otherwise obviously the debt increases, I'd expect an increase in personal taxation, corporation tax, vat, the whole lot, but unless they tackle tax evasion in a big way it won't be received well by the electorate. Austerity measures are a difficult one because this isn't going to be a short to medium term problem, it could last further decades or more, maybe even centuries. But if they drop interest rates to near zero (or less) that might play well for them .....

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andy couchman
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I'm not sure... We forget that property is essentially a wasting asset - you build it and it gradually deteriorates so you have to spend money to keep it nice. But what affects price is supply and demand and a lot of that is driven by desire - and that has in recent decades overruled the wasting asset argument.

Agree we may see having defensable space (a garden!) having greater value and flats less in future but that may be countered by people wanting to live in a town and walk/bikke to work rather than to publicly commute to it. I've worked mainly from home for 25+years now but that is now becoming a viable and indeed attractive option for more people too.

The markets are reporting record levels of demand from first time buyers, and lower interest rates makes affordability a factor for the vast majority who are still working. So they both suggest prices will remain strong.

I'm absolutely no expert but write about such stuff every month professionally and have done for over a decade but of course my views are still worth diddly squat (wearing this hat I'm a critic not a do-er) - I've simply no idea what will happen to prices (never have...)  and most of the professional sources I read seem the same, although all will argue a case when pushed.

Much will depend on feelgood - too early to judge that. I hope though that my kids' houses continue to increase in value modestly and that ours does too. Would I be a professional property buyer now or look to build up buy-to-let? Nah - commercial property looks to have bigger value issues than residential just now and BTL has always made me feel a bit uncomfortable - although many very good friends do so and make money as well as being pretty much model landlords too.

Uncharted territory - as usual!