Sunday evening discussion - do you trust Bloomberg?

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Golf Juliet Tango
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Sunday evening discussion - do you trust Bloomberg?
rj
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Can't name the cost but it must have been huge

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Jonathan Kay
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Can I have both "It's too early to tell" and "You ain't seen nuthin yet"?

Jonathan

rj
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Can I have both "It's too early to tell" and "You ain't seen nuthin yet"?

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BMS7
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Does Likely mean 51% or 99% chance? 
probably too early to tell....

Bruce

Jonathan Kay
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The report is paid access only. I'd expect that to be their central estimate.

Jonathan

Petethediesel
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Hmmmm, forecasts. 

       Once upon a time I worked for a living, and the annual forecasting round was always a joy. Over the years I concluded that a 1 year forcast was never better than plus/minus 10percent accurate, Three year forecasts only directionally correct and beyond that, pure fantasy.

 

                    Yours

                        Victor

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Sadly this is not a forecast but looking back at past performance.

 

Falling Short

Brexit disrupted the historical correlation between growth in the U.K. and that in the other G-7 countries

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Jonathan Kay
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  1. Yes, its an analysis of effect to date, not a forecast.
  2. Predicting that sort of effect is much more reliable than predicting absolute outcome. Unfortunately there was a lot of confusion about this difference in the discussion of the economic effects of Leaving the EU.
  3. Predicting longer term effects is more reliable than shorter term.
  4. We already have the chance to see how some forecasts held up eg this FullFact article, which concludes:
    "But it does seem that once it became clear we were leaving the EU, economists forecasted the impact of the referendum vote on GDP fairly accurately over the space of two years―although the difference in how quickly economic growth slowed down is still important."

Jonathan

Jonathan Kay
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